Last Problem:
A container holds 20 red balls and 30 blue balls. If you draw a ball out of the container without looking, what is the probability that it will be a red ball?
Answer:
The chances of drawing a red ball are 20/50 or 40%. The chances of drawing a blue ball are 30/50 or 60%.
Today’s Problem:
Six men check their hats at the theater. An inattentive attendant mixes up the claim checks, so when the men return after the show the hats are essentially handed out at random.
If someone offered you even money to bet that at least one of the men got his own hat back, would you take the bet? In other words, do you believe that the probability of one of the six men getting his own hat back to be greater than .5?